The 2026 Economic Outlook for Santa Barbara County.

I would like to thank our sponsors for their generous support of the UCSB Economic Forecast Project. With their help, we are able to provide timely information to our community and to hire and train undergraduate students in data collection and analysis. I would also like to thank our Board of Directors for their guidance and thoughtful advice. David Marshall, Executive Vice Chancellor at UCSB, deserves special mention for his sustained support of the EFP over the years.

Thanks to Emily Johnson, Associate Director of the EFP, who manages day-to-day operations. Jonah Danzinger and Emma Joergensen, Ph.D. students in the Economics Department, assist with data collection and content and work closely with the undergraduate interns. Thanks also to Chris Lee, who encouraged and oversaw the integration of AI tools into this document.

This edition marks a turning point in how the EFP produces its Outlook Report. With AI, we rebuilt sections on Business Activity, Employment and Income, and Real Estate essentially from the ground up in almost no time at all. Chapters on Industry Snapshot and Community are forthcoming. The technology has expanded what a small research team can accomplish, and we intend to keep pushing that frontier. We will also be launching a newsletter this summer, Community Matters, where we sit down with local businesses and discuss what matters to them.